Many of us are unhappy with our weight, and even when we follow the news, we see constant reports about the growing obesity epidemic. How overweight is the average Estonian, and by how much, on average, do we want to lose weight?
The team behind Geneto has a pretty good idea of the current situation. We’ve analyzed anonymous data from more than 57,000 Geneto app users, and we can say that the volume of data on which to base our conclusions is impressive. Nevertheless, we need to clarify one thing upfront—our sample isn’t the average Estonian, but rather the average Estonian who considers a healthy lifestyle important to them. Those who don’t prioritize this don’t download health apps, so their data isn’t included in our comparison. Now that we’ve gotten that disclaimer out of the way, let’s dive into the data.
The average user weighs 11.5 kilograms more than they’d like
Doing the math and calculating the average isn’t exactly rocket science. When we analyze the anonymous data of 57,537 Geneto users—their current weight, target weight, height, and desired change — we find that the average app user begins their journey with the goal of losing 11.5 kilograms. Our users’ average starting weight is 77.4 kg, and the median is 74.6 kg. The median weight represents the value where 50% of users weigh more and the other half weigh less. The fact that the difference between the mean and the median is nearly 3 kg indicates that there is a small number of significantly heavier people who push the mean significantly higher than the median.
The average user’s perception of their ideal weight is 65.8 kg (median 64.0 kg). More important than the weight in kilograms is the percentage of body weight that users have, but before we move on to those percentages, it’s important to note that analyzing the average of all users isn’t the most meaningful approach.
Who wants to lose weight, and who wants to gain it?
Although a large proportion of users have set a goal to lose weight, there are also those whose goal is to maintain their weight, and even those who want to gain weight. Since 89.3% of the app’s users have embarked on a healthy eating journey with the goal of losing weight, the averages naturally lean toward weight loss. Nevertheless, 5.7% of users have set a goal to gain weight instead. Therefore, it makes sense for us to break these groups down based on their goals. Let’s take a look at these groups separately.
Women Are More Ambitious Than Men
Among the target group looking to lose weight, 79.9% are women and 20.1% are men. Women’s goals are also significantly more ambitious. They aim to lose as much as 15.7% (12.9 kg) of their body weight, while for men, the figure is 14.3% (14.6 kg).
There were no significant variations across age groups. In every age group, the desired percentage was as expected—15.4–15.5%. In the youngest age group (18–24), this amounted to 11.6 kg, and in the oldest group (55+), 14.3 kg. In the intermediate age groups, the weight to be lost increased steadily, which is probably logical—younger people weigh less than older people. However, in their dreams, people of all ages hope to lose about one-seventh of their body weight to achieve their vision of their ideal weight.
It’s also interesting to analyze how many users set themselves a more modest goal (to lose 1–10% of their weight), how many have chosen a moderately challenging goal (11–20%), and how many plan to really “go all out.” Broadly speaking, these groups are divided fairly evenly into three. 33.9% are satisfied with less, 39.4% are slightly more ambitious, and 26.7% are the radicals.
A slightly different breakdown among weightlifters
People who have set weight gain as their goal are mainly men (58.7%). Men want to add 6.5 kg to their current weight (9.9%), while women want to add 4.9 kg (10.2%) — meaning that, in percentage terms, women are slightly more ambitious here as well and set higher goals for themselves, even though their target weight in kilograms is lower than that of men. Looking at age groups, younger people have higher goals than older people. In the 18–24 age group, the goal is to gain 6.0 kg (11.1%), and in the 55+ group, 4.8 kg (8.2%).
Where We Stand Today
All of this was based on people’s subjective assessments of their own fitness and goals. However, we also have the opportunity to compare, to some extent, whether a user is at a normal weight, underweight, or overweight at the start.
Looking at the body mass index (BMI) at the start of the program, here’s how it breaks down for our users at the time of registration:
underweight: 3.7% (BMI under 18.5)
normal weight: 41.3% (BMI 18.5–24.9)
overweight: 29.2% (25–29.9)
obese: 25.8% (BMI 30+)
In other words, 55% of users begin their journey as overweight or obese.
77.8% of users set a goal of reaching the normal weight category. Therefore, we can confidently say that people assess themselves fairly accurately and do not want to be thinner than necessary—the vast majority simply want to reach a healthy weight range and stay there.
Most goals are medically reasonable
The most reassuring finding concerns just how realistic our users’ expectations are. Healthcare guidelines consider a weight loss of 5–10% of body weight over a few months to be moderate, with a healthy pace of about 0.5–1 kg per week.
In our data, 62.9% of users set a goal in the range of 6–20% of their body weight—a broad but medically reasonable range. The most common individual goal is 11–15% of body weight. People generally don’t want miracles overnight; they want a manageable change.
At the same time, some users (about a quarter) set very ambitious goals for themselves—over 21% of their body weight. This isn’t wrong, but it requires a longer journey, intermediate goals, and more support. For these people in particular, it’s important that the program doesn’t promise the impossible, but rather helps break down the big goal into smaller, achievable steps.
The analysis is based on anonymous data from 57,537 Geneto users. Biologically unrealistic values (weight under 30 kg or over 250 kg, height under 130 cm or over 220 cm) were excluded from the analysis. These are the users’ goals at the time they were entered, not the results they achieved. The results they achieved are a story of their own, and we’ll discuss that another time.
